The next public engagement for Julia Roberts and Russell Crowe following their recent Oscar successes could be with thousands of fellow actors on picket lines around Hollywood.
Los Angeles is becoming used to blackouts as California is hit by a series of power cuts. But if blank screens are not exactly on the agenda, audiences may soon be confronted by extensive repeats and a lot more "reality TV".
From May 2, the Writers Guild of America's 11,000 members plan to go on strike. They may well be joined by the 135,000-strong Screen Actors Guild from the end of June, as contracts both unions have with the studios come to an end. This follows an unprecedented six-month strike last spring, aimed at the commercials sector.
The economic impact of a combined strike would be enormous: 10% of employment in Los Angeles is tied directly or indirectly to the film and TV production industries. The action could easily cost $1.8bn per month.
The media will inevitably focus on the likes of Harrison Ford, paid $25m for 20 days' work on K-19: The Widowmaker. Less obvious, however, will be the impact on the tens of thousands of jobbing actors and actresses whose average income hovers close to the US minimum wage.
Also badly hit will be the hundreds of thousands who make, or scrape, a living in one of the scores of technical and ancillary jobs, from camera to catering, on which the movie industry is built.
The dispute is about residuals, the royalty payments actors receive for repeat showings. Since 1952 most strikes in the sector have been about the transfer of media products to new markets, such as cable TV and DVD. Actors are in effect compensated for the loss of work they might have gained had new programmes been developed for these media.
Producers are already trying to minimise the impact of a strike on the autumn schedules by "stocking the pantry with TV shows", one studio technician claimed last week. The figures seem to bear this out. Compared to the same period last year, production days during January were up by more than 100% in feature films and 20% in television programmes.
Should the strike begin to bite, do producers have any choice but to weather the strike or meet union demands? Karen, a script supervisor, at home in Silver Lake, gloomily predicted that the strike would "drive more work off shore - Canada, Australia, Mexico, Romania, Ireland, wherever ... My union, in spite of the word 'International' in its name, does not have jurisdiction in those locations ... LA would either collapse or learn (forgive the expression) to globalise."
Britain is just as anxious to provide a home for US filmmakers. As with any other manifestation of globalisation, movie moguls are inclined to produce when and wherever it suits them. There is a problem: the big names that sell film and TV titles cannot be easily replaced and the likely impact of the US strikes on Britain are likely to be severe.
Many actors have dual membership of SAG and the British actors' union, Equity. There are common issues for actors on both sides of the Atlantic. "Equity is in full support of the Screen Actors Guild's attempts to get a thorough review of its current agreements," Equity general secretary Ian McGarry says. "The potential dispute in Hollywood comes at precisely the same time as British Equity is looking for a radical review of our films agreement."
Steve Norris, the British film commissioner, warns that the second half of 2001 looks very bleak for the UK industry if production is halted during the summer, when most outdoor shooting takes place in this country.
Martin Spence of the entertainment union Bectu agrees: "Whether or not the strike goes ahead, all the signs are that this will be a very lean year. The US studios have already pushed a whole tranche of projects forward into 2002 or beyond."
In the medium term, technological developments will play an increasingly important role in the prospects of many actors and actresses.
While the Julias and the Russells are always going to sell films, digital animation is increasing. The scores of passengers lost with James Cameron's Titanic were computer-generated along with the crowds in Gladiator and The Patriot. For the moment, unions on both sides of the Atlantic are telling their members to prepare for a tough time this year: forget the new car and DVD player, start saving.
• Nigel Culkin and Keith Randle are members of the film industry research groupat the University of Hertfordshire.
