Mexican film-maker Alejandro González Iñárritu made history on Saturday in Los Angeles, becoming the first director to win the Directors Guild of America award for best feature two years in a row: this year for The Revenant, following last year’s win for Birdman.

Normally, the ceremony indicates how the Oscars race might pan out: Birdman followed its DGA triumph with a best picture win; ditto many others, including Argo, The Artist and The King’s Speech. In fact, only 14 winners in 66 years have failed to land an Oscar for best picture.

But Iñárritu’s win proved that this year’s best picture race is wide open in a way it hasn’t been in years.

The Revenant is indeed now a confirmed front-runner for the big award, but the film is by no means certain to win. It faces formidable competition from Adam McKay’s damning Wall Street comedy The Big Short, and Tom McCarthy’s journalistic thriller Spotlight. The former surprised by winning the Producers Guild award’s top film honor, besting The Revenant; the latter netted the Screen Actors Guild award for outstanding cast in a motion picture days after, which serves as the union’s equivalent of the Oscar for best picture.

Both honors, like the equivalent DGA prize, have in years past helped to predict the eventual Oscar winner (a significant number of members from all guilds also vote on the Academy Awards). With the three guild awards now split on three films, all bets are off.

It’s safe to say, however, that Iñárritu is all but assured to win the Oscar for best director for a second year in a row. Only seven DGA winners have lost out on the award. If he indeed does collect the prize, and the night’s big honor goes to either The Big Short or Spotlight, it would be the third time in four years the Oscars split between picture and director.

Watch out for more surprises leading up to the big show on 28 February – the winners of the 69th annual BAFTA awards are revealed on Sunday. The British group’s top winner serves as yet another strong precursor award.

The DGAs also honored Matthew Heineman for best documentary for Cartel Land, and writer-turned-director Alex Garland with the best first-time feature film director award for Ex Machina.