Graeme Wearden 

Markets volatile amid trade war fears, as Spotify floats – as it happened

All the day’s economic and financial news, as European markets fall following last night’s Wall Street rout
  
  

The New York Stock Exchange today.
The New York Stock Exchange today. Photograph: Justin Lane/EPA

Spotify ends first day’s trading worth $26.6bn

And finally, Spotify has closed at $149 per share.

That’s a drop from its opening level of $165.9, but still 13% above the ‘reference price’ of $132.

That values Spotify at around $26.6bn, more than some analysts had suggested before today’s listing.

Here’s our tale of the latest tech float:

Goodnight! GW

Updated

Wall Street closes higher

A recovery rally on Wall Street has helped the US stock market recover a chunk of Monday’s falls.

The Dow Jones industrial average has closed 1.65% higher, up 389 points at 24,033 - having lost over 450 points yesterday.

Traders were encouraged by reports that the White House was not planning action against Amazon.

Spotify may have bucked the trend with its direct listing, but its ownership structure is depressingly familiar, says our financial editor Nils Pratley.

Its founders are wedded to keeping vice-like control via a share structure with unequal voting rights. For unequal, read unfair: Daniel Ek and Martin Lorentzen own 38.9% of the ordinary shares but they have created “beneficiary certificates” with super-charged voting rights that only they can own. Include those holdings and Ek and Lorentzen have 80.4% of the votes.

As the prospectus is obliged to concede: “If our founders act together, they will have control over the outcome of substantially all matters submitted to our shareholders for approval, including the election of directors.” Put another way, for as long as the duo stick together, they are unsackable.

Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at stockbroker Hargreaves Lansdown, says Spotify has a ‘great story’; even so, people should be cautious when investing.

He explains:

‘Spotify is floating on the stock market at a pretty inauspicious time for the tech industry, which has been rocked by the Facebook data scandal and now potentially faces greater regulation as a result. Donald Trump’s tweeted attacks on Amazon don’t help lift sentiment towards the sector either.

Despite the downbeat mood music, Spotify shares changed hands on the market at a substantial premium to the highest price previously paid in private transactions, indicating significant investor demand for the stock. It’s still early in the US trading session however.

The attraction of the music-streaming service probably lies in Spotify’s strong market share and rapidly growing revenues. It may be some time before Spotify actually turns a profit though, as the company is resolutely prioritising growth over profit, and will be channelling money into investing in services and building further scale.

Unlike its main competitors Apple and Amazon, Spotify is focused on music streaming, so it doesn’t benefit from the network effects of a wider ecosystem. However the company has already carved out a dominant role, and has demonstrated its ability to leverage scale by renegotiating agreements with music labels, boosting its gross margin from 12% to 21% since 2015.

Spotify floats: What the experts say

The BBC’s Danni Hewson is impressed by the streaming service’s opening debut:

Bloomberg’s Alex Webb points out that Spotify is now worth more than some established players (despite having never made a profit!)

Here’s some video of the moment Spotify’s shares joined the market:

Spotify’s shares are bouncing around in early trading, as investors weigh up whether to buy in at today’s opening price.

They’ve just slipped below $164, from the opening price of $165.9. Early days, though....

The Wall Street Journal says Spotify has hit the markets with a bang:

Spotify Technology roared onto the public market Tuesday as the music-streaming giant pulled off an unusual method of going public.

The stock opened at $165.90 and traded in a close range immediately after. With an opening value of $29.55 billion, Spotify is poised to become the third-largest U.S.-listed tech IPO on record, according to Dealogic.

That ‘unusual method’ involved spurning the investment banks who would have underwritten the company’s shares (providing a safety net for the market debut), in return for a large fee.

SPOTIFY VALUED AT ALMOST $30bn

AT LAST! Spotify is finally trading, after more than three hours of intense discussions on the Wall Street trading floor.

Shares have opened for trading at $165.90, sharply higher than the $132 which had been suggested.

That, by my maths, values Spotify at around $29.5bn.

I imagine the company should be pretty pleased - this is a sharp jump on the value of its shares earlier this year (when they could only be traded privately between shareholders).

Updated

On a lighter note, the New York Stock Exchange has confirmed that it accidentally flew a Swiss flag to mark Spotify’s listing -- which is unfortunate as it’s actually a Swedish company.

More here:

Updated

Spotify’s likely market valuation is pushing closer to $30bn, as its unconventional ‘direct listing’ continues to play out on the trading floor

There are 178.1 million Spotify shares in existence (although the company is only offering around a third to New York investors today). So if today’s listing hits $170, as seems possible, the company could be worth several billion dollars more than forecast.

Updated

Market makers on Wall Street are continuing to haggle over Spotify’s valuation, pushing its likely share price value even higher:

European stocks close lower (mostly)

After a edgy day, European stock markets have closed mostly in the red.

The escalation of tensions between China and the US over tariffs hit sentiment in the City, and beyond, as traders returned to their desks after the Easter break.

Anxiety over the tech sector also weighed on shares, despite the interest in Spotify’s listing in New York, and Tesla’s upbeat statement.

The slowdown in eurozone factory growth last month also didn’t provide traders with any fresh optimism.

So, the FTSE 100 finished 26 points lower, or 0.4%, at 7,030. Germany’s DAX shed almost 0.7%, but France was calmer and Italy actually rallied a little.

Jasper Lawler, head of research at London Capital Group, thinks Europe could be a safe-haven from some of the turbulence in America’s markets.

It was a rough start to the second quarter for European equities. Still, next to the losses seen on Wall Street on Monday, the damage in Europe was contained.

Europe is out of the firing line for Trump’s tariffs for now and has a lower weighting in technology companies compared to the US. Both factors make Europe a relative haven from the current negative news flow.

Higher still and higher....

Spotify’s shares are now seen opening at $150-$160 - indicating that its stock market listing is going well.

Wall Street is pushing higher in volatile trading.

The Dow is now up 256 points, or 1% -- which would recover around half of Monday’s selloff.

Connor Campbell of SpreadEx says that “investors continue to process the latest chess-moves in the nascent trade war between China and the US,”, so this bounce-back might be fragile.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq is 0.2% higher, partly thanks to Tesla which is rallying after sticking to its pledge to more than double production of its Model 3 by the end of June.

Those early prices suggest that Spotify could be worth around $27bn, I think.

Not too shabby, given the company hasn’t made a profit out of its 157 million customers.

Ooooh - Spotify is being priced at between $145 and $155 per share.

That’s more than the $132 which had been pencilled in.

This delay is because the company decided not to use investment banks to underwrite its offering -- saving it millions of dollars in fees. So, if today’s listing goes smoothly, other companies might consider taking the same track.

Updated

Donald Trump is refusing to back down in his fight against Amazon, and just fired off a new tweet:

Spotify’s stock market listing is underway...but we don’t know what price its shares are trading at yet.

Wall Street has opened a little higher, as traders hope to recovery from Monday’s selloff.

The Dow has gained 0.5% in early trading, up 123 points at 23,767

Here’s some early reaction to Tesla’s new production numbers:

Tesla releases car production numbers

Just in: Electric carmaker Tesla has just released its latest eagerly-awaited production figures, which confirm rumours that it has missed some of its own targets.

Tesla says it produced 34,494 vehicles in the last three months, 40% more than the final quarter of 2017. This makes January-March “by far the most productive quarter in Tesla history”, it says.

This includes 9,766 Model 3s (Tesla’s new model), and 24,728 were Model S and Model X vehicles.

Tesla also reveals that it has ramped up production recently -- amid reports that founder Elon Musk has taken personal control of car output in recent days (and even been sleeping at the factory).

The company says:

In the past seven days, Tesla produced 2,020 Model 3 vehicles. In the next seven days, we expect to produce 2,000 Model S and X vehicles and 2,000 Model 3 vehicles.

It is a testament to the ability of the Tesla production team that Model 3 volume now exceeds Model S and Model X combined. What took our team five years for S/X, took only nine months for Model 3.

However, Musk had previously aimed to produce 2,500 Tesla 3 cars each week by now. So Tesla hasn’t hit that goal yet.

But crucially, it says it still aims to get production of the ‘3’ model up to 5,000 per week in ‘about’ three months.

Shares are rallying in pre-market trading - up around 6%

Spotify logos have sprung up at Wall Street, ahead of today’s listing:

Dow futures suggests a small recovery

New York’s stock market may claw back some of yesterday’s losses when trading resumes in under an hour’s time.

The Dow Jones index is expected to rise by 0.6%, or around 140 points, judging by the futures markets. That would take a small bite out of Monday’s rout, when it lost over 450 points (and was down 730 points at one stage).

Craig Erlam of City firm OANDA says the markets are still nervous, though:

The second quarter got off to a rough start on Monday, with trade war fears and declining tech stocks taking their toll on investor sentiment, but we are seeing a small rebound ahead of the open on Wall Street.

US futures are up to half a percentage point higher on Tuesday, but this pales in comparison to the losses recorded on Monday and reflects ongoing weakness in stocks. Donald Trump’s attacks on Amazon over the weekend put the spotlight back on the tech sector, as it tries to recover from the Facebook data scandal that threatens more regulation. Pressure on the sector doesn’t appear to be going away in the near-term which will continue to act as a drag on indices.

Updated

Traders might need their tin hats this spring...

In less than 90 minutes, music streaming site Spotify will join the US stock exchange.

You can get up to speed quickly with our explainer, which outlines why the popular service (which has never turned a profit) could be worth up to $25bn - and why today’s listing could be particularly lively....

Joe Weisenthal of Bloomberg is questioning whether Donald Trump has really hurt Amazon’s share price (as suggested earlier).

He points out that other tech companies have suffered similar falls, even though they’ve been spared a digital roasting from the president:

However, I’d suggest that Trump’s attack on Amazon’s tax affairs (and its implications for the digital companies) are one of several factors weighing on markets. And sometimes, investors like to have an excuse to sell -- especially if they’re getting jittery.

Bad news: another 97 workers at the collapsed UK construction and outsourcing group Carillion have lost their jobs.

That take the total redundancies at the company to 1,802, since it was liquidated in January in one of the biggest UK corporate failures in years. Some 9,946 jobs have been saved (because other companies have taken on the contracts they work on).

Sky shares rally as Disney offers to buy Sky News

Sky is bucking today’s selloff, after a cunning scheme to help Rupert Murdoch take full control of the broadcaster emerged.

Disney has ‘expressed interest’ in buying Sky News, a move that might clear the way for Murdoch’s 21st Century Fox company take control of the 61% of Sky’s shares it doesn’t already own.

21CF’s bid has been hit by media plurality concerns - given Murdoch’s strong position in UK media (including owning the Times and Sun newspapers). But those worries might abate, if Sky News wasn’t part of the package.

Jolly decent of Disney to offer to help, eh? Not exactly. The US giant has its own motive - namely to take over Fox (including all of Sky) in a $66bn (£47bn) deal. That takeover risks being derailed because Comcast recently launched its own takeover offer for Sky.

Sky shares have risen to the top of the FTSE 100 leaderboard, up 1.5% at £13.15. That’s higher than either Comcast’s offer (£12.50) or Fox’s (£10.75), suggesting traders expect a higher bid.

City firm Liberum expects Fox to strike back:

We think the news and today’s comments from Sky point to a revised bid from Fox/Disney to trump Comcast’s 1250p bid.

More here:

Two and a half-hours into the new trading quarter, and Britain’s stock market is still down.

The FTSE 100 is currently 46 points lower or 0.6%, at 7010. Industrial stocks, utilities and telecoms firms are leading the selloff.

Neil Wilson of ETX Capital blames the double-whammy of trade tensions following China’s tariffs, and the tech selloff in America:

On tech’s impact on the market, it’s a case of the star performers suffering and this has a big psychological effect on sentiment. It’s not just that they have been behind the bulk of the gains in recent years and therefore exert an outsized effect on indices when they sell off; there is also a kind of network effect on other stocks.

On trade, there is hope that China’s response to US sanctions is sufficiently moderate and contained to prevent further escalation. However we await to see where this goes and whatever happens from here, there is no ‘good news’ in the sense that the direction of travel is either one-way or going no further – we are not about to see a freeing up of global trade (reversal of tariffs), which would be risk-positive. Even if there is no further escalation, the background music is risk-off.

Why Trump's attacks on Amazon are worrying the markets

It’s hardly unusual for Donald Trump to lash out on Twitter -- as Hillary Clinton, CNN, the FBI, several senators and the Mexican government can all testify.

But still, his trenchant criticism of Amazon in recent days has caused a real stir in the markets for several reasons, helping to fuel this week’s market selloff.

Partly, because Trump is taking the side of the old-economy - tweeting that America’s “fully tax paying retailers” are being forced to shut stores because (he claims) Amazon is getting an unfairly good deal.

Politifact, a US website, has debunked Trump’s claim that the US Postal Service is losing money thanks to Amazon. It says:

Amazon isn’t causing the United States Postal Service to lose a fortune. In fact, it’s contributing to its biggest growth sector, package delivery. Deals like the one with Amazon brought in $7 billion in fiscal year 2017.

But still, the US president’s comments suggest that other tech disruptors could also come under fire -- especially if changes are made to the US tax system to help traditional retailers.

That’s not the only concern. Some industry figures are concerned that Amazon (whose shares fell 5% yesterday) is being hammered because its founder, Jeff Bezos, also owns the Washington Post.

Vanity Fair’s Gabriel Sherman is reporting that Trump is firmly focused on Bezos, thanks to the Post’s criticism of his presidency:

Sherman says:

He’s off the hook on this. It’s war,” one source told me.

“He gets obsessed with something, and now he’s obsessed with Bezos,” said another source. “Trump is like, how can I fuck with him?”

That sort of behaviour will unnerve Wall Street, as investors try to judge where to place their money.

It’s also unusual to see politicians try to settle scores so publicly. Paul Donovan, UBS’s chief global economist, fears that such ‘random’ attacks could undermine faith in the ‘rule of law’.

Just in: Britain’s manufacturing has just posted its slowest quarter growth in a year.

But it’s not all bad -- growth in March picked up a little, pushing the manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index up to 55.1 from 55.0 in February.

Factory bosses reported that output growth picked up last month, but increases in new orders and employment slowed.

Data firm Markit says:

The average reading over the opening quarter as a whole (55.1) was the weakest in a year, suggesting that the underlying pace of expansion has been generally slower since the start of 2018.

Eurozone factory growth slows again

Growth across Europe’s factory sector has hit an eight-month low, as the recent ‘euro boom’ falters.

The eurozone manufacturing PMI, which tracks activity across the sector, dropped to 56.6 in March, down from 58.6 in February. This is the third monthly drop in a row, but it still signals solid growth (50 points would show stagnation).

Factory bosses reported that output, new orders and new exports grew at a slower rate last month. They also reported problems getting hold of the raw materials and parts they needed, as supply chains struggled to cope.

Chris Williamson, chief business economist at IHS Markit, is concerned that business confidence also dipped last month.

The fact that business optimism about the coming year has slipped to a 15-month low suggests there are other factors that are now hitting factory order books. Export growth has more than halved since late last year, linked in part to the appreciation of the euro, and in some cases demand is being stymied by higher prices.

Hopes that the markets might calm down after their volatile start to 2018 have been dashed this morning.

Rebecca O’Keeffe, head of investment at interactive investor, says investors need to decide whether we’re heading into a bear market, or just a ‘revaluation’ of asset prices.

The major fear for markets is that the imposition of retaliatory import tariffs by China could just be the tip of the iceberg and will cause a chain reaction that drags more sectors and countries into the dispute. In a world where China is not willing to turn the other cheek and where President Trump likes to get the last word, the situation is set for further turmoil and the danger for investors is that this will escalate into a broader battle, which could leave few sectors immune to trouble.

Each of the major tech companies appears to have its own particular set of problems to deal with. Facebook - data security. Intel - Apple chips. Tesla - missed targets compounding fears of excessive leverage. Amazon - President Trump. However, the one thing these companies do have in common is that these stocks are held by most of the big popular global funds. This means that many investors may have substantial exposure, even if they are not direct shareholders, which makes the tech troubles a wider problem.

Monday’s selloff was actually Wall Street’s worst start to an April since 1929 -- a date etched in market memory thanks to the crash later that year.

Now, it’s just one day’s trading, but its not a great open for the second quarter either...

Yesterday’s selloff means America’s S&P 500 has now shed 3.4% since the start of the year, while the Dow is down almost 5%.

That follows a remarkable 2017, which saw the US stock market surge by around 25%.

European markets have fallen down across the board in nervous trading, as traders rush to catch up with events after the Easter break.

Jasper Lawler of CMC Markets says fears of a trade war are refusing to go away:

On Monday China announced that it has implemented afforementioned tariffs on 128 types of US goods. Implementing the tariffs makes China’s response to Trump’s steel and aluminium tariffs official. China has to show it is serious. We still expect a settlement in trade negotiations between the two nations. Sentiment will be fragile until the result of trade negotiations become clear.

FTSE 100 follows Wall Street lower

Britain’s stock market has fallen sharply at the start of trading.

The FTSE 100 shed 54 points, or 0,7%, to 7001 points, as traders take their cue from yesterday’s slide on Wall Street.

The US president appears to have unnerved the markets, with his trade war rhetoric and attacks on Amazon.

Hussein Sayed, chief market strategist at FXTM, explains:

The fall in tech stocks and escalating trade tensions continued to rattle markets after the Easter break.

This time, it’s Trump’s tariffs and tech stocks driving the selloff, and I don’t think the U.S. President is doing himself any favors before the midterm elections. Beijing’s response hasn’t been aggressive, by imposing levies on $3 billion worth of imports from the U.S.; the question now is - what’s next?

A tariff ‘tit for tat’ is a lose-lose scenario. So, it’s likely that after this war of nerves, the world’s two largest economies will find a middle ground. Markets should get used to Trump’s negotiating style - kicking off with something dramatic, and then scaling down through negotiation.

The agenda: Market jitters; Spotify IPO

Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.

Fresh worries over a global trade war are rippling through the markets today, after China hit back against America’s tariffs on steel and aluminium by targeting imports of food, wine, steel and even ginseng.

The news that Beijing is imposing its own tariffs of up to 25% on more than 120 US products sparked a selloff on Wall Street last night, sending the S&P into correction territory.

The Dow plunged by over 700 points at one stage, before ending the day 458 points lower.

With Donald Trump expected to announce new curbs on China soon, traders are worried that this tit-for-tat action could escalate.

As David Madden of CMC Markets explains:

Beijing decided to impose levies on approximately $3 billion worth of goods from the US. In the grand scheme of things, China’s response hasn’t been too aggressive, but dealers fear we could be starting a long trade war.

The ball is now in Trump’s in court, and traders are waiting for the US President to make the next move.

European markets were closed yesterday for Easter Monday, so we’re expecting losses of almost 1% on the main indices this morning.

Trump has also put the technology sector into a spin, after sending a series of tweets criticising Amazon for avoiding taxes and not paying the US Post Office a fair rate.

Amazon’s share price tanked by over 5% on Monday, on concerns that the e-commerce giant is firmly in Trump’s firing line.

Music streaming site Spotify will hope to ride out the market choppiness, when it lists its shares on the New York stock exchange for the first time. Spotify has taken the refreshing decision not to employ investment banks to underwrite its listing, so the launch could be more volatile than usual.

We also get a new healthcheck on Europe’s factory sector:

The agenda

  • 9am BST: Eurozone manufacturing PMI survey for March
  • 9.30am BST: UK manufacturing PMI survey for March
  • 2.30pm BST: Spotify joins the US stock market
 

Leave a Comment

Required fields are marked *

*

*