Was the coronavirus engineered by Netflix? This was one of the wilder conspiracy theories doing the rounds earlier this month, as observers noted how the streaming giant’s new docuseries Pandemic: How to Prevent an Outbreak dropped into subscribers’ menus just as the world was experiencing exactly the type of once-in-a-century outbreak it was warning against. Coincidence? Good timing? Massively implausible homicidal marketing strategy? “We hoped to inform before, not after, another dangerous pathogen emerged,” explained Pandemic’s producers.

But now that the Covid-19 virus is disrupting global business and behaviour, streamers like Netflix seem to be in a fortunate position. Public gatherings are being discouraged or avoided, including cinema-going. High-profile releases are being postponed, such as the latest James Bond instalment, No Time to Die, Peter Rabbit 2, A Quiet Place Part II and Fast & Furious 9. People are being quarantined or self-isolating, which means they are trapped at home with hours to fill like never before. In other words, conditions are perfect for a marathon binge-watch.

“Amid fears over a global economic slowdown from the widening coronavirus outbreak, companies like Netflix that provide in-home services are best positioned to withstand the storm or even see upside from the crisis,” reported Variety at the end of February, noting that while global stock markets plummeted, Netflix’s share price had actually risen 0.8%. Similarly upbeat was Perry Sook, head of Nexstar, the largest owner of local TV stations in the US. “If it becomes more widespread in the US and there’s more quarantining at home and all of that, it could potentially benefit our business because we’d become the primary source of entertainment,” he boasted on 4 March.

That was then. On 9 March the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 7.8% and media stocks were among the hardest hit. Nextstar lost nearly 14%. Other streaming giants that theoretically stood to gain from the pandemic also fell, due to liabilities elsewhere in their businesses.

Disney, for example, is set to launch its Disney+ streaming service in the UK on 24 March – another case of suspiciously good timing. Disney+ offers a vast back catalogue of features from Disney, Pixar, Marvel, the Star Wars universe and National Geographic – just the thing to keep the young ones amused when the schools are shut, perhaps. The service went live in India this Wednesday, 18 days ahead of schedule. But any potential gains for Disney are offset by hits to its cinema business and especially its theme parks: both Hong Kong and Shanghai Disneylands have been closed since the end of January. There are fears its US parks could be next. On Monday, Disney shares fell 23% (they have recovered slightly since). Likewise Apple, whose iPhone manufacturing supply chains have been disrupted by the shutdown in China. As a “pure play”, solely concerned with the streaming business, Netflix has fared slightly better (its share price fell 6% on Monday), but the overall outlook is bleak: nobody is really “benefiting” from a global economic downturn.

In addition, the “coronavirus is good for Netflix” narrative doesn’t bear close scrutiny, argues Laura Martin, senior entertainment analyst at New York-based Needham and Company: “The logic that just because somebody’s staying in, that’s good for everybody that does TV, that’s simplistic.” She points out that Netflix only makes money on its monthly subscription charges, so it makes no difference if a subscriber watches for one hour a day or 24. Nor does Martin see potential for attracting new subscribers: “Awareness is already 100%.” Added to which, people in the US and elsewhere might well have been suspended from work with no pay. “If you have to decide between food and your Netflix subscription, it seems to me like you disconnect your Netflix. You’re probably not going to add another $13 a month if you don’t know when your next pay check’s going to come in.”

Whether or not the streaming giants profit in the short term, the coronavirus could still have long-term consequences for the industry. That has certainly been the case in China, where the pandemic first struck. Most of China’s nearly 70,000 cinemas closed in late January – just before the Chinese new year holiday, traditionally the most lucrative box-office period. Major movie releases were cancelled. In response, one of them, local comedy Lost in Russia, sold its rights to local streaming platform Bytedance (which also owns the TikTok app), which streamed Lost in Russia for free. It was watched by 180 million viewers in its first three days. By comparison, China’s all-time highest-grossing movie, Wolf Warrior 2, sold 159 million tickets.

Western moviegoers are now accustomed to high-profile movies going straight to streaming, such as Netflix’s releases of The Irishman and Marriage Story, but for China’s booming industry, this was an unprecedented step. Another Chinese New Year movie, the Hong Kong-made Enter the Fat Dragon, made a similar streaming deal with iQiyi – China’s answer to Netflix. (Netflix itself is unavailable in China except via illegal VPN).

Now it’s had a taste of streaming, China is unlikely to go back, says Elaine Yau, a Beijing-based journalist. Quarantined in their apartments, Chinese people have learned to love online viewing, whether that be new movies, cooking shows or livestreams of strangers doing banal indoor activities like sewing. “People are getting bored,” Yau says. “Many people in China like going to the cinema, but they’ve been getting into the habit of watching whatever they want, at their convenience, with no need to buy a ticket. So I think this coronavirus is definitely going to affect movie distribution models and earnings. The cinema chains are very on edge.”

Could it happen here? The longer the pandemic goes on, the more the industry will be disrupted: falling box office revenues, releases postponed or cancelled, delays and logjams in the release schedules, and ultimately, productions delayed or cancelled – which affects the streamers as much as cinema companies. As for cinema losing ground to streaming permanently, the jury is out. “I think people have taken up the streaming habit in a pretty significant way already,” says Matt Mueller, editor of Screen International. “You could see a rebound effect. If people are restricted to their homes because of a pandemic, then by the time it lifts, they will be desperate to get back out into the world, and I think you will probably see a surge in cinema-going.” Mueller points out that despite streaming’s incursions, cinema has been thriving in the UK. “In the past two or three years we have had the highest cinema admissions ever. Whether that continues long term we don’t know, but for now there is still an appetite to see things on the big screen.”