The Golden Globes and Baftas are done and dusted, the Critics Choices packed up for another year. But the big one, the Academy Awards, is yet to come, and with it the ultimate prizes the film industry can bestow on its peers.
Ahead of the 2 March Oscars ceremony, Guardian film looks at how are the big contenders shaping up in the race for glory. We sort through the nominees for the best picture Oscar, assessing each one’s chances and how you can watch or stream each film.
Anora
Nominated for: best picture, best director (Sean Baker), best actress (Mikey Madison), best supporting actor (Yura Borisov), best original screenplay, best editing.
How it’s doing: Although it came into the race trailing a Cannes Palme d’Or win and decent domestic box office, it seemed to get a little lost: outflanked in the progressive/transgressive stakes by Emilia Pérez, and overshadowed in the heavyweight art-film contest by The Brutalist. But both those films have faltered, for different reasons, with Anora picking up some crucial awards, especially the Producers Guild, a key best picture bellwether. It’s looking more and more possible that Anora can nip between them and overtake in the run-in, and Madison’s Bafta win shows she’s a realistic contender for best actress.
What the Guardian said: “An amazing, full-throttle tragicomedy of romance, denial and betrayal.” Read the full review
Further reading
• ‘I find myself getting in a little too deep’: Sean Baker on his Palme d’Or-winning lapdance film
• Mikey Madison interview: from Tarantino bit part to hot tip for an Oscar playing a sex worker
How to watch
• Aus: in cinemas, buy/rent on digital platforms
• UK: in cinemas, buy/rent on digital platforms
• US: in cinemas, buy/rent on digital platforms
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The Brutalist
Nominated for: best picture, best director (Brady Corbet), best actor (Adrien Brody), best supporting actor (Guy Pearce), best supporting actress (Felicity Jones), best original screenplay, best original score, best cinematography, best editing, best production design.
How it’s doing: Undeniable Oscar bait of the old school, its potential seemed confirmed when it scooped 10 nominations and became the standard bearer for classic Hollywood virtues. When Emilia Pérez hit the buffers it appeared well-placed to take advantage. But its self-conscious grandeur has perhaps got in the way of its chances – it’s a little hard to like – and it appears to have been subtly undermined by Accentgate (in which editor Dávid Jancsó, himself nominated, revealed AI had been used to help the lead actors sound more Hungarian). Not a surprise if it won, but no longer quite the shoo-in it once appeared, though Bafta wins for Corbet and Brody show the film’s residual appeal to voters.
What the Guardian said: “This is a film with thrilling directness and storytelling force, a movie that fills its widescreen and three-and-a half-hour running time with absolute certainty and ease … and yet also with something darkly mysterious and uncanny to be divined in its handsome shape.” Read the full review
Further reading
• ‘People often don’t feel treated as equals’: Adrien Brody on complexity, comebacks and The Brutalist
• Backlash builds: why the architecture world hates The Brutalist
How to watch
• Aus: in cinemas
• UK: in cinemas
• US: in cinemas
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A Complete Unknown
Nominated for: best picture, best director (James Mangold), best actor (Timothée Chalamet), best supporting actor (Edward Norton), best supporting actress (Monica Barbaro), best adapted screenplay, best sound, best costume design.
How it’s doing: Could this Bob Dylan biopic follow in the footsteps of Johnny Cash (Walk the Line) and Freddie Mercury (Bohemian Rhapsody) and pick up some major Oscar action? Well, apart from Chalamet’s studious impersonation of Dylan, no one was really talking about it until it unexpectedly surfaced with eight noms, three of them for the cast. Despite the strong showing, it doesn’t look likely to convert any of them into wins, with its best chances in the craft categories.
What the Guardian said: “Chalamet is a hypnotic Dylan, performing the tracks himself and fabricating to a really impressive degree that stoner-hungover birdsong.” Read the full review
Further reading
• ‘The hair, the voice, the casual cruelty – they nailed it!’ Bob Dylan experts rate A Complete Unknown
• Timothée Chalamet says he put on 20lb to play Bob Dylan. Can that tip the scales at the Oscars?
How to watch
• Aus: in cinemas
• UK: in cinemas
• US: in cinemas
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Conclave
Nominated for: best picture, best actor (Ralph Fiennes), best supporting actress (Isabella Rossellini), best adapted screenplay, best original score, best editing, best production design, best costume design.
How it’s doing: If The Brutalist (see above) exemplifies the film-making values Hollywood aspires to have, Conclave is the kind of doughty film it is perhaps taking slightly for granted. A defiantly traditional, meaty, plot-driven showcase for some really good performances, it’s the sort of thing that might have romped home 10 or 20 years ago. In today’s febrile climate it may find it heavy going, notwithstanding the goodwill director Edward Berger brings with the four Oscars his last film, All Quiet on the Western Front, scored two years ago. Conclave is being treated respectfully, scoring plenty of noms, but it’s hard to see where any wins might come from; its Bafta success might be ascribed to local British interest. Fiennes has a decent chance, but he’s hardly the favourite (and didn’t get a Bafta on his home turf), and Berger didn’t even make it on to the directors’ list. Adapted screenplay is probably Conclave’s best bet.
What the Guardian said: “Ralph Fiennes is on sumptuous form as the deeply troubled Cardinal Lawrence at the centre of a murky Vatican plot. The result is a high-camp gripper, like the world’s most serious Carry On film.” Read the full review
Further reading
• ‘We create gods because the world is chaos’: Ralph Fiennes, John Lithgow and Stanley Tucci on celebrity, sin and papal thriller Conclave
• Tomato and basilica: in Conclave, Stanley Tucci plays Stanley Tucci – and I couldn’t be happier
How to watch
• Aus: in cinemas, buy/rent on digital platforms
• UK: in cinemas, buy/rent on digital platforms
• US: in cinemas, buy/rent on digital platforms, streaming on Peacock
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Dune: Part Two
Nominated for: best picture, best cinematography, best production design, best sound, best visual effects.
How it’s doing: Sequels sometimes do well at the Oscars (The Godfather Part II, The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Mad Max: Fury Road) but there’s got to be a feeling that there’s something a bit more than just: more of the same. Hardly anyone is talking about this one for the best picture race; the six Oscars the first part won seem to have sucked all the energy out of the second part’s campaign. Voters might give it repeat wins in the various craft categories, but the overwhelming sense is that it’s someone else’s turn.
What the Guardian said: “It’s another shroom of a film, an epic sci-fi hallucination whose images speak of fascism and imperialism, of guerrilla resistance and romance.” Read the full review
Further reading
• Dune v Dune: do Denis Villeneuve’s films stay true to the book?
• Pretentious, moi?: Josh Brolin’s poetry about Dune has landed, whether we like it or not
How to watch
• Aus: in cinemas, buy/rent on digital platforms, streaming on Binge and Netflix
• UK: buy on digital platforms, streaming on NOW
• US: in cinemas, buy/rent on digital platforms, streaming on Netflix
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Emilia Pérez
Nominated for: best picture, best international feature film, best director (Jacques Audiard), best actress (Karla Sofía Gascón), best supporting actress (Zoe Saldaña), best adapted screenplay, best editing, best sound, best cinematography, best makeup and hairstyling, best original score, best original song (El Mal and Mi Camino).
How it’s doing: Momentum had been building since the Golden Globes so it wasn’t exactly a shock to see Emilia Pérez top the Oscar nominations list; more a slightly vertigo-inducing sense of wonder at how they had pulled it off. It all came crashing down a few days later when the contents of Gascón’s social media feed became apparent, and the film’s awards campaign has been spinning in the wind ever since. Interestingly, a bit of a frontlash appears to be emerging, as naysayers are worrying they might have gone a bit far. Even so, it seems inconceivable the film can overcome the crisis, though Saldaña looks nailed on, as does best international film, an impression reinforced by its successes at the Baftas. It might get somewhere in the music categories, but the big ones appear to have disappeared over the horizon.
What the Guardian said: “A slightly bizarre yet watchable musical melodrama of crime and gender [that] plays like a thriller by Amat Escalante with music and lyrics by Lin-Manuel Miranda, and a touch of Almódovar.” Read the full review
Further reading
• The rise and fall of Emilia Pérez: how did it all go so wrong for the Oscar-nominated film and its star?
• ‘Madonna, please. It’s only a film. Be happy!’ The star of Emilia Pérez on transitioning at 46 and making icons cry
How to watch
• Aus: in cinemas
• UK: streaming on Netflix
• US: in cinemas, streaming on Netflix
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I’m Still Here
Nominated for: best picture, best international feature film, best actress (Fernanda Torres).
How it’s doing: Brazilian director Walter Salles is perhaps less of a name to conjure with than he once was, so it’s a tiny bit of a headscratcher how this politically inspired film ended up with a best picture nomination. In truth, it’s the pleased-just-to-be-here absolute outsider, its status presumably underscored by near-universal respect for lead Fernanda Torres – whose mother Fernanda Montenegro got an Oscar nomination for an earlier Salles film, Central Station. It’s hard to see a route to victory anywhere, though there’s a small chance it might get past Emilia Pérez for international film.
What the Guardian said: “The subtlety and dignity of Fernanda Torres’s Oscar-nominated performance in Walter Salles’s film have been rightly praised. This is a kind of mother-courage true story.” Read the full review
Further reading
• Brazil film portraying notorious crime during dictatorship strikes chord: ‘It hasn’t been overcome’
How to watch
• Aus: in cinemas
• UK: n/a
• US: in cinemas
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Nickel Boys
Nominated for: best picture, best adapted screenplay.
How it’s doing: Probably the critical darling of the list, in that it’s got the smallest box office of all the best picture nominees, but has a bunch of critics society awards to show off. For a while it looked like there might have been a bit of Moonlight-style momentum behind it but now looks well off that sort of pace and impact. You can never say never, but its win chances are pretty remote.
What the Guardian said: “There are outstanding performances here … This is a survivor’s coming of age: tough, disillusioned, brilliant.” Read the full review
Further reading
• Nickel Boys star Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor: ‘If we see something wrong and don’t say anything, we’re participants’
• ‘What would happen if the camera was Buddhist?’ The outlier film-making of RaMell Ross
How to watch
• Aus: n/a
• UK: n/a
• US: in cinemas, buy on digital platforms, streaming on MGM
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The Substance
Nominated for: best picture, best director (Coralie Fargeat), best actress (Demi Moore), best original screenplay, best makeup and hairstyling.
How it’s doing: Traditionally, horror struggles at the Oscars; genre pics tend to need an elevating twist to make any headway, (The last bona fide horror film to get a best picture nomination was Get Out in 2018.) So The Substance getting this far is a statement in itself, powered by the spectacle of Demi Moore in serious contention for best actress. Can it go all the way? No one is holding their breath; the feeling is its voter base is just too narrow to get it to the top spot. But its presence is certainly a sign that the membership’s taste is evolving.
What the Guardian said: “A grisly fantasy-parable of misogyny and body-objectification, which riffs on the crazy dysfunctional energy of Roger Vadim and Jane Fonda with borrowings from Frankenheimer and Cronenberg.” Read the full review
Further reading
• ‘Before Ozempic we had amphetamines. But it’s always the same violence’: Coralie Fargeat on women, ageing and Hollywood
• Demi Moore’s stellar second act: how the star was finally given her due at 62
• Is The Substance brilliant feminist critique or a soulless mess?
• ‘We can be violent to ourselves. Brutal’: Demi Moore on body image, reinvention and her most shocking role yet
How to watch
• Aus: in cinemas, buy/rent on digital platforms
• UK: in cinemas, buy/rent on digital platforms, streaming on Mubi
• US: in cinemas, buy/rent on digital platforms, streaming on Mubi
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Wicked
Nominated for: best picture, best actress (Cynthia Erivo), best supporting actress (Ariana Grande), best costume design, best editing, best makeup and hairstyling, best production design, best original score, best sound, best visual effects.
How it’s doing: There’s a ton of goodwill behind this updated incarnation of the traditional Hollywood musical: it’s been a big commercial hit, a major event movie, and an empowerment message that makes everyone involved (and looking on) feel better about themselves. It doesn’t quite look like the winner though; musicals don’t usually have the seriousness of purpose that more often than not propels nominees to the actual award, and Wicked doesn’t quite have those sort of chops. (And dare we say it, the decision to split it in half for release isn’t helping it look like a complete and finished work of art.) But it should grab a few in the music and craft categories.
What the Guardian said: “It’s a sugar-rush fantasy with the overpowering star presence of Cynthia Erivo; it basically dunks you face-down in a hyperreal ball pit of M&M’s for two and three-quarter hours.” Read the full review
Further reading
• Cynthia Erivo on fame, fear and not fitting in: ‘I’ve never talked about how tough my journey has been’
• Wicked’s green skin trigger warning may feel silly – but not as silly as those crying woke
How to watch
• Aus: in cinemas, buy/rent on digital platforms
• UK: in cinemas, buy/rent on digital platforms
• US: in cinemas, buy/rent on digital platforms
