If you’re finding it harder than usual to get excited about the Oscars this year, don’t worry. Several factors – from the punishing length to the lack of an Oppenheimer-style breakout hit to the weird tone of hosting a glittering movie award ceremony in a city that just suffered through wildfires – have combined to dull everyone’s expectations this time around.
Still, there is still good news to be had. You now no longer have to wait for the Oscars to learn who won what, thanks to the absolutely monumental glut of anonymous Oscar voter ballots that have filled the internet in the past week. Seemingly every single person who gets to cast a vote in the Academy awards has scarpered away to one website or another to reveal exactly how they voted. So let’s collate all their findings and predict some winners.
Best picture
Not to immediately undo my own thesis, but if this year’s anonymous ballots are any indication, the best picture award is anyone’s game. The Hollywood Reporter’s voter went for Conclave. The majority of Variety’s voters preferred Anora, as did Indiewire’s. But between Gold Derby and Next Best Picture, which each spoke to multiple voters, votes were spread across Wicked, Dune, Nickel Boys, Anora, A Complete Unknown, The Brutalist, and even poor unloved Emilia Pérez. Someone on EW’s panel said they voted for The Substance. In short, this feels like one of those years where people vote for the film they hated the least, rather than the one they loved the most. A case in point: one of the EW voters (a director) couldn’t even summon the energy to watch all the nominated films, saying: “I’m bummed because I haven’t seen The Substance or I’m Still Here yet. The first Dune, I couldn’t get through; I’m not rushing for another three hours of Dune.” In short, Anora might win, but it’s anyone’s game. Except for I’m Still Here, which nobody actually seems to have watched. Hope that helps.
Further reading
Oscars 2025: best picture nominees – reviews, awards and where to watch
Why Anora, I’m Still Here, The Substance, Dune: Part Two, Conclave, Nickel Boys, A Complete Unknown or Emilia Pérez should win the best picture Oscar
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Best actor
Luckily things are a little clearer here. Although Ralph Fiennes, Colman Domingo and Sebastian Stan all secured some votes, this looks set to be a two-horse race between Adrien Brody and Timothée Chalamet, with Chalamet just about edging it. That said, just in case you’re wondering about the calibre of the rationale that goes into these things, the Indiewire voter ruled out the possibility of choosing either Brody or Chalamet, because both their characters were self-centered and smoked a lot. If enough people echo this sentiment, the Oscar is Domingo’s to lose.
Further reading
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Best actress
Let’s begin by writing off Karla Sofia Gascón instantly. Since her controversial tweets surfaced, support for her has withered. “I was flabbergasted – I was like, ‘I can’t believe this person said these things.’ And it kept getting worse every day,” said the Hollywood Reporter’s voter. Until now, consensus seems to be that Demi Moore would win this for The Substance. However, perhaps she has been a victim of her own hype because, by a hair, Mikey Madison received more anonymous votes than her. Fernanda Torres lags a little behind in third place, while Cynthia Erivo and Gascón each only managed two votes each. And, since Gascón has been cancelled so hard that even her own director has disowned her, that has to sting for Erivo.
Further reading
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Best director
Again, the smart money at the beginning of awards season was Brady Corbet, who made a really long, sumptuous film for basically no money. But the admission that he augmented his work with AI has really knocked the chances of The Brutalist winning. In total, Corbet received six anonymous votes, compared to Sean Baker’s eight. This points to another victory for Anora although, again, many of the voters seemed to do it because none of the other directors were particularly inspiring. One of Next Best Picture’s voters seemed to sum up the mood when they said: “I wish I could’ve written in Denis Villeneuve.”
Further reading
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Best supporting actor
Like Robert Downey Jr last year, the assumption was that Kieran Culkin would be a foregone conclusion here; partly because he’s very good in A Real Pain, but mainly because he’s even better at giving acceptance speeches. But the anonymous ballots refute that this is a done deal. So many of the voters began their rationales by saying something along the lines of, “I know that Kieran is going to win, but …” that he isn’t all that far out in the lead. Very close behind him – so close that he might even nose it on the night – is Culkin’s Succession co-star Jeremy Strong. Such was the support for Strong that one Gold Derby voter lamented his underpowered campaign, saying: “I would have had him everywhere opening supermarkets.” If you’re looking for some psychodrama to get you through the gruelling ceremony, this is probably where you should look.
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Best supporting actress
Finally, let’s end with something approaching certainty. Although every nominee here received multiple anonymous votes – with Ariana Grande getting enough of a groundswell that she looks set to be the frontrunner after the second Wicked film comes out – Zoe Saldana received more votes than anyone in any category. There are a few reasons for this. First, Saldana is the only definitively good thing in Emilia Pérez (an iffy film rocked by controversy), so people who enjoyed it might feel their votes are safer here. Second, she’s good! She probably does deserve an Oscar.
So there you have it. If you were only going to watch the Oscars to see who won best supporting actress, now you no longer have to. But apart from that you probably do have to tune in, because honestly this was less useful than I thought it’d be.
