Happy new year to this season's crop of Oscar contenders: to the American president and the rebel slave, the swaggering cult leader and the intrepid agents at the CIA. Because for these blessed souls, this happy few, the festivities have only just begun. The forthcoming week sees awards season kick off in earnest, with Wednesday's Bafta nominations followed by Thursday's Oscar nominations which is in turn followed by Sunday's Golden Globes prize-giving ceremony. Everyone else (and that includes us) can only tend to their hangovers and watch them frolic from the sidelines.
If we largely know how this party will play out, that's because the Globes provided a handy schedule with last month's list of nominees. Barring calamity, catastrophe or the Hollywood equivalent of civil war, then, it is likely that Steven Spielberg's Lincoln will dominate this week's Oscar shortlist, where it will be joined in the race for best picture by the likes of Les Misérables, Argo, Zero Dark Thirty and Django Unchained. I'm betting The Master squeezes in there too, although it's clear that the film's star has waned in the months since it debuted at last autumn's Venice film festival. As the news cycle accelerates, it seems that Venice and Toronto are no longer the guaranteed launch-pads they used to be. Evidence suggests that it's now better to roll up fashionably late, like Django or Zero Dark Thirty, and then ride the novelty value for all that it is worth.
In terms of acting prizes, it's hard to see beyond Daniel Day-Lewis (for Lincoln) and Jessica Chastain (for Zero Dark Thirty), although Joaquin Phoenix (The Master), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), John Hawkes (The Sessions) or Naomi Watts (The Impossible) will fancy their chances. The role of sentimental favourite, meanwhile, looks tailor-made for nine-year-old Quevenzhané Wallis, the raggle-taggle heroine from Beasts of the Southern Wild. The film, too, may yet feature on the best picture shortlist.
Over at the Baftas, expect the traditional British bias to monkey, ever so slightly, with the established hierarchy. No doubt we shall see nominations for Lincoln, Argo and the like. But there should also be room for films such as Skyfall and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel – quite possibly in the best picture category, more likely among the nominations for "best British film". Home-turf advantage might even be enough to see Les Misérables upend Lincoln in the scrap for top honours.
Today, on the eve of Oscar season, the usual warnings apply. Please be advised that the award ceremonies that follow are liable to be garish and vapid, shamelessly self-satisfied and arguably reductive in rubber-stamping the credentials of major Hollywood movies at the expense of everything else. That said, this year's contenders come billed as far and away the best vintage of recent years – offering an eclectic mix of the respectable (Lincoln, Argo), the flammable (Django, Zero Dark Thirty) and the eccentric (The Master, Beasts of the Southern Wild).
So which films will falter and which ones prevail? My suspicion is that, given the choice, the Academy tends to gravitate towards the respectable end of the nominees' bench. But who knows? Could this be the year in which the voters hand the best actor prize to Phoenix's twisted tour-de-force as Freddie Quell and then, for good measure, anoint Quentin Tarantino's "slavery-western" as the year's best picture? Your guess is as good as mine. Chances are, at this early stage, it's as good as theirs as well.
