Gérard Depardieu has become Vladimir Putin's latest recruit. Jean Michel Jarre is cosying up to Downing Street. Brigitte Bardot is about to don her sapogi over the treatment accorded to Baby and Nepal, which happen to be two elephants. She should first have a look at what passes for animal welfare in Russian zoos. It matters not that the totemic measure of François Hollande's election campaign, the 75% tax on millionaires, has already been struck down by a court – the rich and famous appear to be heading for the door anyway. It is still appearance, rather than reality – the numbers leaving for Belgium doubled, from 63 in 2011 to 126 last year, but at that rate it would take a long time to add a significant number to the 200,000 French residents already there – but even if the flight of the celebs is phoney, it does not look good. It speaks of a rudderless government and a president who still has not decided who he really wants to be.
Mr Hollande's bigger problem is surely with those who cannot flounce off in a blaze of publicity. He devoted his new year message to what he called the great battle for employment – and well he might, after France saw its 19th consecutive month of rising unemployment. Its 1997 record of 3.2 million jobless could soon be broken. The urgency of turning these figures around is clear. What Mr Hollande's government has as yet failed to do is offer a convincing way forward. Take Pierre Moscovici, who as minister of finance is one of the more experienced in government. He was asked by Les Echos how he was going to get the economy to grow by 0.8%, a vital part of this year's plans, when the IMF predicts near-flat figures. He replied that French growth would be boosted by Barack Obama's fiscal cliff victory, a rebirth of eurozone confidence and the president's programme of public investments. Really? There are 16 other eurozone nations and they don't share Mr Moscovici's confidence.
Mr Hollande has the road clear in front of him. There are no stop signs or traffic lights in his path. His party retains a firm majority at all levels; the right is in disarray after a leadership election fiasco which has permanently divided the largest party; and there are no elections this year. And yet so far Mr Hollande has done a good job of stalling the engine before he has even got it in gear.
The 75% tax rate for people earning €1m a year or more was both popular and a measure that was more symbolic than real. It would not have produced great amounts of extra revenue. Furthermore, if life were a game of Mastermind, taxation would be Mr Hollande's specialist subject. As an academic, he lectured on it. Despite this, he managed to get his law struck down on a technicality – that taxation in France is raised on the income of a household, not an individual. Further, it is difficult to see how he can reformulate the law and stick to its spirit. If he raises the threshold to €2m per household, the number of mega-rich drops significantly. If he lowers the rate, he faces cries of a sellout from the left.
Not everything is going badly for him. For all its indebtedness, on Friday France's borrowing costs dipped fractionally lower than Britain's, which still retains its triple-A rating. His prime minister may be unpopular, and the ministers unable to speak with one voice, but Mr Hollande's biggest problems are structural ones – an over-rigid labour market; the extra costs French employers pay for their employees; the French car industry – and they are all inherited. Neither of his two conservative predecessors, Jacques Chirac and Nicolas Sarkozy, bit the bullet of reform, and France is paying for that paralysis now. It still has some of the best multinationals in Europe.
Seven months in, Mr Hollande has to stop the rot. As party chief, he showed he was a good dealmaker and negotiator. As presidential candidate, he caught the overwhelmingly anti-Sarkozy mood. As president, he now has a task of a different magnitude. He has to show the nation that he can lead. A lot rides on the result. This year could make or break his presidency.
