Joker: Folie à Deux is on course for a catastrophic financial loss of up to $200m (£153m) as its dismal box office run continues amid a stream of critical brickbats and poor audience ratings.

According to a report in Variety, industry analysts say Joker: Folie à Deux is projected to earn a total of $65m at the North American box office, and around $215m elsewhere for a total of $280m – well below the estimated $300m the film cost to produce and promote. With revenue splits with cinemas factored in, Variety say that in fact the film needs to earn around $450m to break even, though producing studio Warner Bros say that the break-even figure is in fact $375m. In an effort to claw back revenue the film is headed for an early debut on home entertainment and streaming platforms on 29 October. Meanwhile the Rotten Tomatoes rating website has recorded an audience score of 32%.

As a result, industry sources, speaking to Variety, estimated the film could lose its producers between $125m and $200m. However a statement from Warner Bros disputed the accuracy of the figures, saying: “Any estimates suggested by anonymous ‘insiders’ or ‘rival executives’ are grossly wrong and continues a trend where rumour is reported as fact.”

All this is in stark contrast to the reception given the first Joker film. With the same star, Joaquin Phoenix, and director Todd Phillips, Joker won the prestigious Golden Lion at the Venice film festival on its premiere in 2019 as well as winning the best actor Oscar for Phoenix; it was also a huge commercial success, earning $1.08bn at the global box office, including £335m in North America.

Blame for Folie à Deux’s failure has been apportioned to a number of factors. The surprise success of the first film put Phillips, its director and co-writer, in a powerful position, allowing him to reportedly ignore or bypass the demands made by DC Studios, custodian of the Batman/Joker intellectual property. In retrospect, his decision to make Folie à Deux into a musical co-starring Lady Gaga appears to have alienated the comic book fanbase, a vital section of the audience if a film is to be a major hit.

Charles Gant, box office editor of Screen International, says that Phillips may take the fall. “The mantra in Hollywood is always to offer audiences the same, but different. With Joker: Folie à Deux, it seems like Todd Phillips offered the wrong kind of different. The core audience received the message that not only is the film very different from the first film, but also that people liked the first Joker for the wrong reasons. In general, people are not rushing to pay money to be be scolded. Whether or not that’s a fair summary of what Folie À Deux actually delivers has become irrelevant – it’s the message fans have received.”

And although neither Joker film remotely resembles a conventional comic-book superhero movie, Hollywood is coming to terms with “superhero fatigue”, as follow-ups to seemingly invulnerable characters and brands record disappointing figures. Films such as Aquaman and the Lost Kingdom ($434m worldwide) and The Marvels ($200m worldwide) have performed well below expectations – though conversely Deadpool and Wolverine (1.33bn) exceeded them.

The inflated cost of making the sequels also played a part, with Phoenix and Phillips earning a reported $20m each, and Lady Gaga $12m.

Gant adds: “The film seems now trapped in a doom spiral. Reports of its failure are scaring off the broader audiences needed to reduce the flow of red ink on the balance sheet. Actually, Folie à Deux has its fans, and among IMDb users who have rated it so far, 18% scored it 8, 9 or 10. Sure, it’s a minority, but those scores don’t quite gel with what has become a stigma of total failure.”

• This article was amended on 16 October 2024 to clarify that the sum of $200m loss came from industry sources speaking to Variety.