It’s a scenario that would make Tesla’s CEO, Elon Musk, shudder: a future where self-driving cars are the norm but a catastrophic electronic breakdown traps thousands of people inside them.
This dystopian vision of the future was one sketched out by science fiction writers at an event this week where experts were asked to prepare Britain for threats ranging from pandemics to cyber and nuclear attacks.
The writers joined researchers and policymakers working in crisis management and resilience at the gathering organised by RBOC (Resilience Beyond Observed Capabilities), a network of academics whose funders include the Ministry of Defence (MoD).
Emma Newman, a sci-fi novelist who was at the event, said: “Taking a very character-based approach can help reveal aspects of future scenarios that you might not necessarily get from a more pulled-out approach.”
Newman, who was shortlisted for the Arthur C Clarke award in 2017 with her novel After Atlas, emphasised the value of being able to imagine individual experiences in future scenarios.
“So when the power goes out for the first hour from, say, an electro-magnetic pulse incident, it means someone might not be able to make a cup of tea, but for others it’s about vital medical equipment,” she said.
“But then let’s think of a society in 2050 where you just have self-driving cars. What if you suddenly end up in a situation where there are thousands of those people trapped in their cars?”
The event was the latest example of the skills and knowledge of sci-fi writers being brought in to help with planning for the worst.
Allen Stroud, a Coventry University lecturer and chair of the British Science Fiction Association (BSFA), who has also worked on dystopian-themed video games, said: “The science fiction community wants to be part of the conversation and it has a role to play.”
Stroud recently took a leading role in Creative Futures, a research partnership involving prominent science fiction writers and MoD experts looking at the challenges the UK will face in the next century. There are plans to produce and sell a volume of stories from that project.
Last year, as part of a different project, the MoD published on its website an anthology of technological-themed stories by British sci-fi writers who sketched out scenarios such as British troops being decimated by apparent Russian adversaries with superior AI and quantum technology.
The ideas of sci-fi writers have long been taken seriously in the US, where the novelists Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle were among those who successfully lobbied Ronald Reagan to create the proposed missile defence system known as the Strategic Defense Initiative (SDI), or the “Star Wars” programme.
After the 11 September attacks, the US military solicited ideas from Hollywood screenwriters about what the future might hold. Last year, Nato marked its 75th anniversary with the publication of the Nato 2099 graphic novel, which takes place in a world experiencing devastating maritime attacks throughout the 2050s.
Stroud, whose work has included guidebooks that inform the fictional narrative in the Elite Dangerous online game, conceded that working with government agencies had prompted unease on the part of some sci-fi writers.
“This did come up in some of the initial discussions we had in the BSFA and I know there have certainly also been thoughts within the sci-fi community where there is an understandable ethical objection,” he said.
“At the same time, in the conversations we have had with representatives of the MoD, it has been said that this is not about new weapons. It can be about things such as getting ready for something like resource shortages, or planning where an aircraft carrier with humanitarian aid could be sent.”
Stroud said challenges concerning future energy supply was one of the areas he believed was worthy of more scrutiny.
“We work and live in societies revolving around a western governmental way of thinking that encourages us to have short-term thinking, but how do you plan for something that is going to take 50 years at least before it materialises?,” he said.
“That’s where I think there is a benefit in having the involvement of people who can conceptualise what society could be like as far in the future as that.”
